BEST PICTURE

"Babel," "The Departed," "Letters from Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen."

MARK'S PICK: LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA

In a year of lackluster cinema, it's not in the least bit surprising that most of the nominees for Best Picture ended up backing their way into this category. For instance, according to Martin Scorsese, The Departed was never meant for Academy fare. Rather, it was meant to be a thrilling and entertaining audience favorite, nothing more. And "Letters from Iwo Jima?" It was only supposed to be an epilogue or side bar to the more patriotic "Flags of Our Fathers." Quietly exuding a complexity of character for Helen Mirren to explore, "The Queen" could just as easily have landed on the small screen as a made for television special. And then there's "Little Miss Sunshine," a film whose cuteness factor has been exploited and overhyped since Sundance to the point of yellow nausea. A Best Picture candidate? Certainly not!

The only exception in the field is Babel, a film by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, that attempts to have something to say, desperately groveling at Oscar's golden feet. And by no means did it back into anything.

In the same storytelling fashion as last year's surprise hit, "Crash," "Babel" pieces together a variety of stories across the globe in an attempt to decipher the babel or language and cultural barriers that separate us. Individually, these are compelling and complex, such as the story involving Rinko Kikuchi's deaf-mute teenager; however, the film awkwardly fails in trying to connect everything together, stretching to the point of absurdity. And the end result is a film that is far less engaging than Inarritu's brilliant "Amores Perros," which uses the same techniques and conveys far more.

So what does all of this mean? Has the Oscar become irrelevant? None of the five contenders has more nominations than "Dreamgirls," a film that should be in this category in place of the independent darling, "Little Miss Sunshine." And speaking of "Sunshine," it quietly took the top honors at the Producers Guild Awards and the Screen Actor's Guild Awards, a sign that it may have more momentum than any of the films in this category. After all, 10 of the last 16 films winning Best Picture from the Producer's Guild have gone on to win the Oscar. Likewise, the odds that the Best Director winner will also receive the Best Picture award: 56 in 79 (approximately 71 percent probability). That alone, should increase the odds for Martin Scorsese's "The Departed." Right?

Statistically speaking, with less than $9 million at the box office and tarnished by its World War II predecessor, Letters from Iwo Jima is the least likely to win Oscar gold. Did I also mention that no foreign language film as ever won Best Picture? Not that there haven't been many attempts. Seven to be exact: "Grand Illusion" (1938), "Z" (1969), "The Emigrants" (1972), "Cries and Whispers" (1973), "The Postman" (Il Postino) (1995), "Life Is Beautiful" (1998) and foreign film's best chance for Best Picture, 2000's "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," which lost to the testosterone infused "Gladiator." Heck, "Letters" wasn't even nominated at the Producer's Guild Awards like the other four candidates. "Dreamgirls" was in its place.

But the one thing that "Letters from Iwo Jima" has that the other films don't have is guts. Like Eastwood's magnificent drama, "Million Dollar Baby," "Letters from Iwo Jima" boldly goes into new territory, perhaps even more courageous than confronting euthanasia head on, Eastwood tackles World War II from the Japanese side. And the way he executes and tells the story, with a keen eye for both humanity and beauty, is unlike any other director today. The film is a haunting reminder that there are always two sides to any story, even at war. And in spite of the atrocities and harshness that exist on both sides, there is a poetic, honorable beauty in life and death.

That this film was shot in black and blue filters makes it stand out. That it was shot almost entirely in Japanese makes it more authentic. And unlike the other films in this category that are either trying too hard or unable to say much of anything, "Letters from Iwo Jima" says a lot about the absurdities of war, the meaning of duty and honor, and in general, who we are as a race. Although the category's biggest underdog, sure to lose to popular favorites "Babel" or "Little Miss Sunshine," it is clearly the Best Picture of 2006.

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"; Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"; Peter O'Toole, "Venus"; Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"; Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland."

MARK'S PICK: FOREST WHITAKER

As the last two years would indicate, the Academy has developed a penchant toward actors who mimic real life personages. In both biopics "Ray" and "Capote," Jamie Foxx and Philip Seymour Hoffman claimed the top acting honor for their terrific impersonations. And this year, only two of the candidates can make such claims - Will Smith as Chris Gardener in "The Pursuit of Happyness" and Forest Whitaker as Idi Amin in "The Last King of Scotland."

For Smith, his dramatic turn in "Happyness" is just the beginning. But for Whitaker, "Last King" is the pinnacle for an actor in the prime of his career, having journeyed from such great roles as the ones in "Platoon," "The Crying Game," "Bird," and "Phenomenon" to name a few. Without surprise, Forest Whitaker has swept all of the major acting accolades from Golden Globes to Screen Actor's Guild and is sure to win here. Cast as the tyrannical Ugandan leader, Idi Amin, Whitaker scarily transforms from charming and personable friend to callous and cruel dictator. And it's the perfect role for an actor who evokes the notion of a gentle giant. As Amin, he readily draws us in, disarmingly humble and jovial one minute, then shockingly murderous and erratic the next.

Arguably, Whitaker's performance is the most distinguished; however, both Ryan Gosling and Peter O'Toole's performances should not be overlooked. Gosling takes an astonishing turn as a crack addicted teacher in "Half Nelson," a powerful film that barely had much of a pulse at the box office but is worth a look. And O'Toole, a stalwart industry vet, demonstrates that he's still got it, playing an aging thespian in the sentimentally sweet "Venus." Each of these actors could give Whitaker a surprise on Oscar night, but it's doubtful.

The real tragedy in this category lies with Leonardo DiCaprio, who turned in two great performances in 2006 and who is rapidly becoming one of the best actors of this generation. Known for such noteworthy roles as "What's Eating Gilbert Grape," "Titanic," "Catch Me if You Can," "The Aviator," and "Gangs of New York," DiCaprio finds himself on the outside looking in, nominated for "Blood Diamond," a solid movie and role that lacks the buzz of Scorsese's heated crime drama, "The Departed." In the latter, DiCaprio's undercover cop lives on the fringe, trapped in a triangle of betrayals, while carefully concealing a depth of fear inside. It's the kind of stellar role that, if nominated, could have been a contender. But because of its absence, Whitaker will waltz.

BEST ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, "Volver"; Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"; Helen Mirren, "The Queen"; Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"; Kate Winslet, "Little Children."

MARK'S PICK: HELEN MIRREN

Once more, the category of Best Actress is crystal clear. Helen Mirren will runaway with the Oscar for "The Queen." And the only question is what Queen Elizabeth thinks of her movie and all the attention it's been getting?

In "The Queen," Mirren embodies her character so confidently and so thoroughly, that she turns the plain into fascinating. Not to mention charming and at times, whimsical. Through her shrewd and diplomatic behavior, she allows us to see that there is more to the Queen than meets the eye. In particular, the history and reasoning behind her stance against a state funeral for Princess Diana. And that, my friends, is what acting is all about. By far, Mirren's performance is the best by any actress this year, as supplemented by over thirty pre-Oscar awards.

But just because Helen Mirren is the odds on winner doesn't mean that the remaining performances are less worthy. In their own right, these are four very strong performances by four very talented women.

There's Penelope Cruz, whose third collaboration with Pedro Almodovar is a dandy - a fancy free mother of a teenage daughter who is visited and advised by her own mother's ghost; Judi Dench, on her sixth Academy nomination, as the ruthless schoolmaster making life miserable for Cate Blanchett in "Notes on a Scandal;" Meryl Streep, making her fourteenth nominated appearance, for the wickedly demanding fashion editor Miranda Priestly of Runway magazine; and Kate Winslet on her fifth nominated performance, portraying Sarah Pierce, a married woman who seeks happiness and adventure on and off the playground.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"; Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"; Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"; Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed."

MARK'S PICK: EDDIE MURPHY

Okay. I never thought I would be saying this, but Marky Mark Wahlberg deserves consideration for Best Supporting Actor. Yes, indeedy. The former New Kids on the Block star and Calvin Klein underwear model earned a nomination for his unrelenting, unfiltered role as police sergeant Dignam in "The Departed." Perfectly overpowering the likes of Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Jack Nicholson himself, Wahlberg shows the kind of edgy determination and force in this role that should be enough to separate him from the Funky Bunch teen sensation he once was and morph into one serious actor.

And speaking of serious actors, how about Alan Arkin ? Not since 1968's "The Heart is a Lonely Hunter," has Arkin made his way onto the red carpet. A shock for sure, considering his noteworthy work on projects like "Thirteen Conversations About One Thing," "Glengarry Glen Ross," "Catch-22," and "Grosse Point Blank." Even though Arkin is all about the work and less about the awards, there's no questioning his ingenious turn in "Little Miss Sunshine." As Grandpa, Arkin breaks stereotype by portraying a character as a foul-mouthed, crack smoking, sex addict. It's a hysterical set of idiosyncrasies for a grandfather and Arkin uses it to his advantage, setting the stage for a beautiful tender moment with his granddaughter, Olive.

Yet, when it comes to the Best Supporting performance of the year, one look no further than the one Eddie Murphy serves up in "Dreamgirls." Cast as the exuberant soul icon, James "Thunder" Early, Murphy uses all of his prior SNL experience, especially when channeling James Brown on stage, to create a tragic tale of fame to misfortune - a character that gets left behind the times, unable to compensate. And in retrospect, his fleeting moments on stage become glaringly obvious as cries for help. Such depth for a comedic actor with grand potential, potential that can only be tapped if given the proper confidence. And that confidence will start with an Oscar. For, if Murphy can use the award to his advantage and forgo the quick money in comedic flops like "Norbit" and "The Adventures of Pluto Nash," he has the potential to become something very special.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Adriana Barraza, "Babel"; Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"; Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"; Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel."

MARK'S PICK: JENNIFER HUDSON

I wonder. Will they play the theme song to "American Idol" when Jennifer Hudson 's name is announced as the winner of Best Supporting Actress? Not if Hudson has anything to say about it, I'm sure. The former castaway from the popular music assembly line demonstrates that losing isn't the end all it seems to be. Hudson has serious pipes, but she also has talent to back them up. Talent enough to beat out roughly 800 actresses for a part in the film. And talent to keep up with the likes of Jamie Foxx, Eddie Murphy, and Beyonce Knowles.

In "Dreamgirls," Hudson plays the affable Effie White, who refuses to sacrifice who she is just to get ahead in the music business. Stubborn, courageous, and independent, Hudson exudes confidence beyond vocal prowess. In fact, one could argue that her presence is so dominant as to be a leading role. And when she steps into the spotlight to belt out "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going," you better brace yourself. All the frustration, sorrow, and disappointment erupt into a singular, breathtaking Oscar moment.

But as Oscars past demonstrate, the award for Best Supporting Actress is notoriously a sticky wicket, where surprises are more often the norm. And this year, the upset contenders are poised. There's Adriana Barraza, sacrificing her very own health, to portray a Mexican nanny in the States who makes a near fatal mistake by going south of the border; Cate Blanchett, a prior winner in this category for "The Aviator," going a different direction in "Notes on a Scandal," as a distraught schoolteacher with a sensuous secret; ten year old, Abigail Breslin, in her first nomination, as Olive, aka "Little Miss Sunshine;" and Rinko Kikuchi, for her uninhibited and bold portrayal of a mute-deaf girl in search of love and affection after the death of her mother.

Ultimately, however, this is Hudson's race to lose.

2007 Academy Awards Preview (CONTINUED)

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