BEST PICTURE

"Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich."

MARK'S PICK: CRASH

I know. The stats read like a "Brokeback Mountain" sweep. 10 of the last 15 films winning Best Picture from the Producer's Guild of America have gone on to win the Oscar. The film with the most Oscar nominations always wins. And the odds that the Best Director winner will also receive the Best Picture award: 56 in 78 (approximately 72 percent probability). But the one stat that intrigues me the most? Not since 1981, have both the Best Picture nominees and the Best Director nominees been identical. And in 1981, a funny thing happened. Warren Beatty won for Best Director of "Reds" while "Chariots of Fire" won Best Picture. I know. Stats don't really matter when it comes to the Academy Awards. The only thing that truly matters is a combination of momentum, hype, and oh, yes...quality.

At the head of the back with all of those things is "Brokeback Mountain," the year's most controversial and courageous film. Starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger as two young cowboys involved in a lifetime romance, "Brokeback Mountain" is a quiet, yet rough emotional journey. Directed with perfect pacing and subtlety by Ang Lee, the film is beautifully cinematic and simple, profoundly engaging the emotions associated with unrequited love. Sweeping through the awards circuit winning Golden Globes, the Producer's Guild Awards, American Film Institute, etc., "Brokeback Mountain" has found itself at the center of this year's Academy Awards. In fact, virtually all aspects of the film have been nominated from the acting to the cinematography to the adapted screenplay and original score. Without a doubt, "Brokeback" has the momentum, the hype, and the quality to go all the way.

That said, "Crash" doesn't have much of a chance, right? Released way back in May of 2005, "Crash" has zero momentum and very little hype going into the Awards on Sunday. But unlike the other nominees, the film struck a chord with its audience. And it continues to be revisited and discussed. Written and directed by Paul Haggis, the Academy Award winning writer of "Million Dollar Baby," "Crash" provocatively relays a handful of stories, each with a different spin on racial tolerance in today's world. Featuring an all-star cast from Matt Dillon to Terrence Howard to Don Cheadle, "Crash" became the must see film of 2005, teaching racial tolerance through compelling, thrilling stories of lives breaking apart and crashing together.

Oddly enough, for a film that seemingly had no momentum, "Crash" won the prestigious ensemble award at this year's Screen Actor's Guild Awards, upsetting the heavily favored "Brokeback Mountain" a few weeks ago. Although it's certainly no precursor, it does indicate the lingering effects of a film released way back in May. Further proof that, all stats and awards aside, "Crash" is the best film of 2005.

BEST ACTOR

Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."

MARK'S PICK: PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN

Unlike last year, where Jamie Foxx was miles above the closest competition, this year's race for Best Actor is extremely tight. In fact, it's so tight that performances such as Russell Crowe's in "Cinderella Man," Eric Bana's performance in "Munich," Jeff Daniels' in "The Squid and the Whale," and Pierce Brosnan's for "The Matador" did not even make the final cut. A shame, but certainly an indication of just how many great roles 2005 had for leading men.

This year, however, the leading candidate is Philip Seymour Hoffman, for his role as the idiosyncratic writer, Truman Capote. Hoffman is an incredibly versatile actor as his resume indicates roles in such films as "Happiness," "The Talented Mr. Ripley," "Flawless," and coming soon, "Mission Impossible III." In "Capote," Hoffman not only masters the voice and the movement of the eccentric, Truman Capote; he also digs deeper into Capote's psyche, creating a haunting portrait of a man so gifted and yet, so easily seduced by the dark side. Especially when that dark side involves an affinity for a serial killer with whom Capote is writing a book about. Director Bennett Miller spent years piecing together the film, written exclusively for Hoffman. And it is glaringly obvious that without Hoffman's chilling portrait, this film would not have the success that it has had.

Accompanying Hoffman in the Best Actor category is a group of actors representing a series of diverse occupations from a pimp to a cowboy to a country musician to a television journalist. As DJay in "Hustle & Flow," Terrence Howard plays a pimp seeking to escape the confines of the hood through music. It's Howard's finest role to date and an incredible sign of things to come (Note: He's also brilliant in "Crash!"). Then there's Heath Ledger, who plays Ennis Del Mar, the quiet and repressed young cowboy in "Brokeback Mountain." Ledger is probably the dark horse in this race, winning several Film Critics Circle Awards. Although not necessarily a splitting image of Johnny Cash, Joaquin Phoenix captures both the spirit and the adversity of the Nashville legend in "Walk the Line." And lastly, there's David Straitharn, who takes on t.v. journalist, Edward R. Murrow, with nuance and poise. But unfortunately, none of these roles is as large or as impressionable as Hoffman's.

BEST ACTRESS

Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North Country"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line."

MARK'S PICK: REESE WITHERSPOON

This year, the category of Best Actress is crystal clear. The only question is what Reese Witherspoon will be wearing for her big night. After all, I'd be willing to bet that the Academy has not seen more than two of the performances nominated in this category. For Dame Judi Dench and Charlize Theron, there is a tendency to overlook "Mrs. Henderson Presents" and "North Country" because both actresses have been victorious beforehand. And Keira Knightley, although very delicate and romantic in "Pride & Prejudice," is simply overshadowed by her supporting cast. Lastly, much like Charlize Theron's very own "Monster" and Hilary Swank's "Boys Don't Cry," both of which were award winners, Felicity Huffman gives a distinguished performance as a man who inadvertently discovers he has a son before he is to undergo a gender changing operation. Yet, out of all the performances, Huffman's "Transamerica" has been seen the least, generating only a million dollars at the box office.

So that leaves Reese Witherspoon. And on the foot heels of Jamie Foxx's magnificent performance as Ray Charles in the award winning film, "Ray," comes "Walk the Line," a musical biography about another outstanding musical legend - Johnny Cash. The film stars Joaquin Phoenix as the man in black. And playing opposite him is Reese Witherspoon as the vibrant and courageous June Carter Cash. Easily, this role could have been a throw away, hidden in the shadows of the music and the iconic image that is Johnny Cash. But Reese does more than hold down the fort. She gives a performance that is equally convincing and memorable as the main role itself.

Of most significance is the change in Witherspoon's approach, the degree of authenticity. Sure, we've seen Reese play the lead in romantic comedies like "Legally Blond" and "Sweet Home Alabama," roles that depicted a lovable southern charm. But her role as June Carter Cash has much more range, from charming and vivacious to troubled and desperate. And there's this great balance between on and off stage personas that Witherspoon just simply nails. Unlike any of the other candidates for Best Actress, Reese does it all. She sings, she dances, and she even plays a mean autoharp. While other categories are filled with dark horses, this one is not. Witherspoon will most definitely walk the Oscar line.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence."

MARK'S PICK: PAUL GIAMATTI

With his gritty performance as CIA agent Robert Barnes, George Clooney shows a different side, one that is far less sophisticated and self assured, and more or less rough around the edges. Earning a nomination trifecta, mostly for his work on "Good Night, and Good Luck," Clooney's chances of winning an award seem pretty decent. But "Good Night, and Good Luck" faces steep competition from "Crash" and "Brokeback Mountain." Although his performance in "Syriana" is not as showy as his work in "Good Night, and Good Luck," his recent triumph at this year's Golden Globes demonstrated that not only is he well liked and well respected in the industry, he is the odds on favorite for this category.

That said, the Academy has occasionally been known to award certain performances based on a collection of work. Or award a performance out of guilt. And this year, if there ever were an actor who deserved an Oscar under such circumstances, it would be Paul Giamatti. Giamatti has been delivering one great performance after another over the last few years. But shockingly, they've all been ignored.

For his nervous, grumpy role as comic writer/illustrator Harvey Pekar, Giamatti got rave reviews for 2003's "American Splendor," but not by Oscar. And last year, as troubled wine coinnesseur, Miles Raymond, Giamatti got completely shut out. But this year, he takes a different role; this time he's on the undercard. As Joe Gould, Jim Braddock's trainer, Giamatti provides much needed encouragement, pep, and soul to the "Cinderella Man." And while it's not the finest performance of his career, it should be good enough to win. After all, Giamatti was bestowed the prestigious SAG Award, a tell tale sign from his peers that he truly deserves it.

Yet, for some reason, if the votes for Clooney and Giamatti split, count on Matt Dillon to take home the Oscar. Dillon's performance in "Crash" is no fluke. As a rough and tough racist cop, Dillon evokes a wide variety of reactions from anger and outrage to remorse and compassion. Dillon is the wild card in this race, although even without the award, it's a well-deserved honor for the hard working actor. Rounding out the category is Jake Gyllenhaal and William Hurt. Gyllenhaal, for his outspoken young cowboy in "Brokeback Mountain" and Hurt for his eccentric gangster in "A History of Violence." Gyllenhaal's nomination should be seen as a sign of encouragement for the young up and comer. And Hurt, well I'm still scratching my head.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, "Junebug"; Catherine Keener, "Capote"; Frances McDormand, "North Country"; Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"; Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain."

MARK'S PICK: RACHEL WEISZ

In the time that it takes you to say "Brokeback Mountain," the award for Best Supporting Actress is handed out. The first award given out, Best Supporting Actress is frequently a total surprise, with winners ranging from Marisa Tomei to Anna Paquin to Mercedes Ruhl and Mira Sorvino. And oftentimes, the recipients seem to drop off the face of the earth. But I don't know that you can say that about this year's honorees. This year, on the surface, it looks like one of the most competitive categories at the Academy Awards. There's Michelle Williams, playing the unsuspicious, young wife of Heath Ledger's Ennis Del Mar in "Brokeback Mountain." Frances McDorman giving another strong performance opposite Charlize Theron in the hard working, "North Country." And Catherine Keener, who keeps Philip Seymour Hoffman's "Capote" on the straight and narrow.

The category also has the best kept secret at this year's awards - the performance of Amy Adams in "Junebug." A dark horse candidate, I wouldn't be surprised if she pulls the upset of upsets. Portraying a naive, country girl, Adams is incredibly childlike, inquisitive, and chatty. But it gets even better, as Adams transforms Ashley from an unattractive, quirky, and somewhat annoying character into the emotional glue that holds her family together. In other words, "Junebug" is a must-see film because of Adams' performance - the film's heart and soul.

But sadly, Adams is only a long shot. And after watching Rachel Weisz sweep the awards circuit, the competition looks mostly one-dimensional. As the heroic humanitarian in Fernando Meirelles' "The Constant Gardener," Weisz is forceful, upfront and honest, passionate and virtuous. And it too is a fine, fine performance, one that plays perfectly opposite Ralph Fiennes. Due to the lack of nominations for "The Constant Gardener," expect the Academy to go to Weisz for the film's sole award.

2006 Academy Awards Preview (CONTINUED)

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