BEST PICTURE

"The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Million Dollar Baby," "Ray," "Sideways."

MARK'S PICK: MILLION DOLLAR BABY

A billionaire pilot, an eccentric playwright, a legendary musician, a female boxer, and a duo of bumbling wine connoisseurs. Such characters comprise this year's Best Picture race, a race that looks to be much tighter than in year's past, where juggernauts like "The Lord of the Rings," "Chicago" and "Gladiator" have reigned supreme. At the head of the pack this year is The Aviator, a biopic of movie mogul and sky captain, Howard Hughes and his brush with fame and misfortune. And it appears to have everything going for it, as the Academy favors period pieces, films with mega star power, visionary projects, stories about personal triumph over personal adversity, and films that enlighten and entertain us with historical insight. Even more significant, "The Aviator" is the odds on favorite - 10 of the last 14 films winning Best Picture from the Producer's Guild of America have won the Oscar. And in its 77-year history, the film with the most Oscar nominations almost always wins.

That said, "The Aviator" will not win this year. In spite of all the odds and awards it's received recently, it's just not good enough. And I like DiCaprio, Scorsese, Blanchett, and the bunch. But to be honest, it's a bit shocking to see it listed as a contender when brilliant films like "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," "Hotel Rwanda," and "The Incredibles" are standing on the sidelines. It's no mistake that "The Aviator" is absent from my Top 10 Films of 2004 . It's because, like many Scorsese epics (see "Gangs of New York"), the film is strong in directing and acting, but lacks restraint and brevity. And when you compare it to Million Dollar Baby, you'll notice a stark difference. "Million Dollar Baby" is the most complete, the most compelling, and the most Oscar worthy. Even though lately it's been subjected to controversy because of its subject matter, there's no questioning the quality of its storytelling. And the extra press will only help the film, fueling Academy ballots.

Sadly, Finding Neverland finds itself up a creek without a paddle. "Neverland" is an excellent movie worthy of the praise, but only three times in the history of the Academy Awards has a film won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. And this year, Marc Forster failed to make the cut. As for the remaining two pictures, Ray is considered a one man show and will receive its honors elsewhere and Sideways will suffer the tragic fate bestowed upon an independent comedy. Over the last 20 years, a comedy has never captured the big prize.

BEST ACTOR

Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"; Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"; Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"; Jamie Foxx, "Ray."

MARK'S PICK: JAMIE FOXX

Every year, there are at least one or two categories where one performance outshines the others. Last year, it was Charlize Theron in "Monster." And this year, it's Jamie Foxx . In the musical biography "Ray," Jamie Foxx puts on quite a show. A show unlike any other. He lives and breathes Ray Charles, inhabiting the musical genius' very soul and essence. He demonstrates with tenacity the impact of Charles' afflictions. And he communicates the extraordinary ability that lies in his music. While many may view his performance as more of an impersonation than an original creation, I don't feel it will be enough to derail his chances. That's because this is a perfect impersonation. And after a heartwarming speech at the Golden Globes, in which Foxx graciously hit all the right notes, it's hard to imagine this award going to anybody else.

As the title of Charles' final album, "Genius Loves Company" so aptly conveys, Foxx is not alone in this race. Rather, he is accompanied by some truly outstanding performances that in any other year, would undoubtedly run the table. First, there's Leonardo DiCaprio in "The Aviator," who brilliantly walks a fine line between exuberance and inner turmoil in his portrait of Howard Hughes. Then there's Johnny Depp, the only repeat nominee, who returns as the sensational Scottish playwright J.M. Barrie in "Finding Neverland." And if all the directorial kudos weren't enough, Clint Eastwood's rugged, fatherly figure in "Million Dollar Baby" musters up enough grit and goodness to earn a spot in this category. And last, but by no means least, is Don Cheadle, who in my mind sweeps the awards in Foxx's absence. Cheadle delivers the finest performance of his career as the benevolent and courageous Paul Rusesbagina, a hotel manager saving lives in the midst of an African holocaust in "Hotel Rwanda."

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, "Being Julia"; Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"; Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"; Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind."

MARK'S PICK: HILARY SWANK

The year was 1999 and Annette Bening was poised for Oscar glory. Her portrayal of Carolyn Burnham, the manic depressive mother in "American Beauty" was absolutely marvelous. So great was it that she had her acceptance speech all written and ready to go. But then, from out of nowhere, came Hilary Swank . In a mesmerizing performance as a woman who lives her life as a man, Swank delivered a first round knock out to Bening in one of Oscar's biggest upsets. Now, here we are several years later and the two are neck and neck once more. Bening, for her comedic role as Julia Lambert, an aging but glamorous actress whose life slowly begins to fall apart in "Being Julia." And Swank, for her earthy, yet unglamorous role as Maggie Fitzgerald, a boxer with nothing to lose in "Million Dollar Baby." Each captured their respective Golden Globes earlier this year, but it was Swank who won out at the SAG awards.

So who will take home the Academy Award? Well, considering the Academy's perception of comedy, I anticipate Swank will be victorious once more; however, there are two strong spoiler candidates. First, there's the quietly reserved and naturally impressive Imelda Staunton, who gives an amazing and almost angelic performance in "Vera Drake" as a well intended nurse performing abortions in 1950s England. It's the kind of performance that, if seen by more people, might have been the front runner in this race. And second, there's Kate Winslet, who sheds the typical period piece get ups for an edgier, punkish look in "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind." It's the most ambitious role of her career, as refreshing as it is heartwarming. And if Academy voters can remember back to March, she'll have an outside shot.

Lastly, who could forget Catalina Sandino Moreno's endearing and gritty role as Maria Alvarez, a Colombian girl caught up in heroin trafficking? It was an impressive debut for Moreno; however, because foreign films take a back seat at the Oscars, she will have to take comfort in her nomination as a reward.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Alda, "The Aviator"; Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"; Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"; Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"; Clive Owen, "Closer."

MARK'S PICK: CLIVE OWEN

Best Supporting Actor this year appears to be a strong three horse race as Owen nabbed the Golden Globe, Haden Church won the Broadcast Film Critics' award, and Morgan Freeman prevailed at the Screen Actors Guild. Each performance was equally satisfying, but only one left an indelible imprint in my mind. And that performance was from Clive Owen, the diabolical doctor in Mike Nichols' destructive romance, "Closer." Owen's character is the powerful manipulator and punisher who vengefully takes what he wants, well aware of the damage he's causing to others. Sharing screen time with three other outstanding performers, Owen stands out as the glue that grasps and repels the others. It is a break out performance in a film that would most certainly suffer without his assertive presence.

The problem, however, is that "Closer" has received very little momentum in the weeks leading up to the awards. Of most significance, Mike Nichols failed to receive a nomination for Best Director and Patrick Marber's sensational screenplay is missing from the Adapted Screenplay category. Therefore, it's highly likely that the Academy would shift toward a sentimental favorite. And that sentiment is Morgan Freeman, a brilliant actor who surprisingly has never won an Oscar, despite many memorable appearances in such movies as "Driving Miss Daisy" and "The Shawshank Redemption." In fact, Freeman has turned in so many fine performances that he's practically taken for granted. And his role in "Million Dollar Baby," as Eddie "Scrap Iron" Dupris resonates with the same well-matured texture and gentleness as anything he's ever done. Although I don't feel it's his finest, it's a performance that could easily top Owen based on a career of noteworthy roles.

Without a doubt, the dark horse in this category is Thomas Haden Church, whose character Jack in "Sideways" is a self indulgent, obnoxious buffoon on the surface. But underneath the manly exterior is a wounded, former actor with a failed career and whose goofiness and womanizing can readily be seen as a cry for help. Haden Church has eerily followed the career path of Jack himself, emerging from relative obscurity to re-emerge with a hysterically self-deprecating performance. However, to his detriment, the Academy rarely bestows its precious prize on comedy. And therefore, his chances remain slim at best.

Regretfully, Jamie Foxx and Alan Alda have next to no chance. Foxx's role as Max, the taxi driver forced to transport Cruise's hitman from stop to stop in "Collateral" was one of the most underrated performances of the year. But because of the attention he's received for "Ray," voters will be less inclined to vote for him here. And Alan Alda, an actor with an esteemed career, should be pleased to have landed a nomination at all. His role as Senator Brewster in "The Aviator" was not substantial enough to compete with the others in this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"; Laura Linney, "Kinsey"; Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"; Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"; Natalie Portman, "Closer."

MARK'S PICK: CATE BLANCHETT

Best Supporting Actress is typically the first major award handed out on Oscar night and traditionally, it's a surprise. From Helen Hayes in "Airport" in 1970 to Marisa Tomei in 1992 for "My Cousin Vinny" or Mira Sorvino in 1995 for "Mighty Aphrodite," Best Supporting Actress has always been a bit of a mystery. Only recently have things calmed down a bit as Jennifer Connelly, Catherine Zeta-Jones, and Renee Zellweger won Oscar respectably. This year, like the Best Supporting Actor category, Best Supporting Actress appears to be a three way race between Blanchett, Madsen, and Portman, especially without Meryl Streep ("The Manchurian Candidate") in the loop.

The front runners are Blanchett and Madsen. In "The Aviator," Cate Blanchett does an amazing thing. She portrays the legendary Katharine Hepburn, with self-assuredness and courage. And what starts out as an uncomfortable caricature turns into something completely different - an unshakeable portrait of a woman with passion, conviction, and sentiment. Blanchett's portrayal is one of the riskiest performances of the year, since Hepburn was well respected, well admired, and very familiar to the Academy community, having captured four awards in her illustrious career. And it's one of the most difficult things to do as an actor - playing a well-known Hollywood legend. When compared to Virginia Madsen's wine connoisseur in "Sideways," it's simply no contest. Although "Sideways" has become an audience favorite, Madsen occupies far less screen time than Blanchett and her nomination appears to be based on one simple scene, in which she eloquently pontificates on the complexities of wine and life.

Next in line is Natalie Portman, who captured the Golden Globe for her portrayal of Alice, the seemingly na?ve and innocent stripper in "Closer." But surprisingly, she is considered the dark horse in this race. The reason? Her absence from contention at the Screen Actor's Guild awards. Most certainly, she deserves to be here. Stepping out of stereotypical roles, Portman lets her guard down and embodies a more mature and sophisticated character, one who is unafraid to tell the truth about others but not her self. And she uses seduction to mask her real identity. The role is a stretch because it's her first as a woman; however, because her peers failed to recognize her at the SAG awards, it's hard to imagine that they will recognize her at the Oscars.

One of my favorite films from 2004 was "Hotel Rwanda." And the nomination of Sophie Okonedo was certainly a pleasant surprise. Even though her role, as the steadfast mother against all odds, is not particularly unique or risky, it was definitely one of the finest of the year. The same can be said for Laura Linney, who in "Kinsey" plays the uninhibited but loyal wife of well-known sex guru, Dr. Alfred Kinsey. Linney is terrific, but like Okonedo, is in a film that few people will notice.

2005 Academy Awards Preview (CONTINUED)

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