BEST PICTURE

"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," "Lost in Translation," "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World," "Mystic River," "Seabiscuit."

MARK'S PICK: THE RETURN OF THE KING

There isn't a single picture in recent memory that comes close to Peter Jackson's LOTR trilogy in terms of size and scope, particularly when you consider the effort involved from the production design to the sound and visual effects to the costumes and the ensemble performances. Overall, it is a landmark achievement in film, deserving of the highest recognition bestowed upon a film. However, what makes this year's decision difficult is the fact that "King" is not really a stand alone film. Rather, it is the final sequel in a trilogy of films. And the deciding factor may very well rest on whether Academy voters can distinguish it from its predecessors.

Enter "Lost in Translation," a film that is gaining Oscar momentum not to mention a wider audience with its recent DVD release. Representing the complete package, the film is replete with vivid style, great writing, and understated performances by Bill Murray and Scarlett Johansson. "Lost in Translation" was this year's other Best Picture winner at the Golden Globes and it too is a worthy candidate. For unlike "The Return of the King," it is all inclusive, with a beginning, middle, and end. And with its subtle charm and unconventional flair, it sticks out as one of the year's most distinguished films.

But does it have what it takes to win the big prize? Back in 1998, "Shakespeare In Love" surprised everyone by upsetting the heavily favored Spielberg war film, "Saving Private Ryan." It was one of the few independents to do so. But at that time, "Shakespeare" had 13 nominations and this year, "Lost in Translation" has only 4, which in the eyes of Oscar may be too few. Further hampering its chances is the fact that it does not have the kind of universal appeal that "Lord of the Rings" has. In other words, it may not be seen with the same rarity as when released in Asian countries, particularly Japan, later this March. And finally, over the last 25 years, only 6 times has a comedy/drama or musical won best picture: "Chicago" (2002), "American Beauty" (1999), "Shakespeare in Love" (1998), "Forrest Gump" (1994), "Amadeus" (1984), and "Terms of Endearment" (1983). It's easy to see that drama is king of the Best Picture category and films like "Lost in Translation" have history against them.

Of course, in a tight race, there's always a chance a third candidate could surpass the top votes and steal the award. And in this instance, that dark horse is Clint Eastwood's methodical potboiler, "Mystic River." A solid film with strong acting, particularly from Sean Penn, the film has been gaining a lot of praise. But I believe it's gotten too much. Yes, it's a good film, but in lieu of the two aforementioned films, it doesn't compare. In fact, I would argue that there are several films that deserve to be in place of "Mystic River," "Seabiscuit," and "Master and Commander." Top 10 Best Films of 2003. Nevertheless, "Mystic" still has a shot, but considering the fact that Mr. Eastwood has been here before and achieved an Oscar for 1992's "Unforgiven," the Academy may be inclined to look the other way.

BEST ACTOR

Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl"; Ben Kingsley, "House of Sand and Fog"; Jude Law, "Cold Mountain"; Bill Murray, "Lost in Translation"; Sean Penn, "Mystic River."

MARK'S PICK: SEAN PENN

Rarely will I agree with every nomination in a particular category, but this year's Best Actor is an exception. In fact, the only performance lacking is Paul Giamatti's role as every day hero, Harvey Pekar, in the comical adaptation "American Splendor." Unfortunately, to add him would require a subtraction of one of the others. And although I dismissed "Cold Mountain" as a best picture candidate, Jude Law's performance as the devout soldier was dead on. Johnny Depp's chaotic pirate Jack Sparrow in "Pirates of the Caribbean" was a mark of pure comical genius. Then there is Ben Kingsley, who is absolutely dynamite as an immigrant Iranian fighting to save face and his family in "House of Sand and Fog." And lastly, both Bill Murray and Sean Penn, turn in the finest performances of their careers. So, who do you replace?

At the forefront of this year's race is Sean Penn, who took home the dramatic Golden Globe for his gritty portrayal of Jimmy Markham, an ex-con who loses his daughter in "Mystic River." Distancing himself from the competition, Penn also made a significant contribution to "21 Grams," another heavy hitter in which his co-stars, Naomi Watts and Benecio del Toro, each received Academy nods. Thus, it's hard to argue against two great performances. And when The New York Times calls your performance one of the greatest performances of the last 25 years, it's probably time to start polishing the mantle piece. Heck, even fellow nominee Jude Law recently told reporters at the Berlin International Film Festival that Sean Penn deserved it, saying: "He's someone I've respected and looked up to and admired for years and years and years, and I think it should be his year."

Yet even though Penn is the obvious choice, I believe the best performance of the year actually came from Ben Kingsley . In "House of Sand and Fog," Kingsley is passionate, authoritative, and determined. As a displaced Iranian trying to do what is best for his family only to wind up in personal tragedy, Kingsley delivers a performance above and beyond expectations, leaving you emotionally damaged at the bitter end. But as good a performance as this is, he will most likely forever be synonomous with his Academy Award winning performance in 1982 as "Ghandi." And the Academy is well-known for spreading the wealth.

Aside from Penn, I believe each of the nominees has an equal chance at the upset. And wouldn't it be the coolest to see a jubilant Bill Murray or Johnny Depp give an Oscar acceptance speech? I just don't think it will happen.

BEST ACTRESS

Keisha Castle-Hughes, "Whale Rider"; Diane Keaton, "Something's Gotta Give"; Samantha Morton, "In America"; Charlize Theron, "Monster"; Naomi Watts, "21 Grams."

MARK'S PICK: CHARLIZE THERON

Forget about Charlize Theron for a moment. Can you believe that Keisha Castle-Hughes was nominated for her beautifully uplifting performance in "Whale Rider?" Out of all the nominations this year, this was my favorite surprise. And kudos to the Academy for recognizing and remembering her stand out performance. Even though Keisha's chances of winning are infinitesimally small, it was an absolute joy to see that there are some redeeming qualities in the Academy Award process, particularly since "Whale Rider" was released during the summer, long before award season. Furthermore, the Academy is not known for abundantly recognizing foreign film actors and actresses, particularly those in their acting debuts. Go Keisha!

But come Oscar night, it will most likely be a moot point. There is really only one individual that stands alone in this category and that individual is Charlize Theron . Nominated for her gutsy, unattractive portrayal of serial killer, Aileen Wuornos, Theron breathes heart and soul into her role as a woman caught in the middle of a downward spiral - killing for survival. It's as unglamorous as Halle Berry in 2001's eerily similar play on words, "Monster's Ball." But going the distance, transforming your appearance, and taking a chance on a demanding role such as this one is just what gets the Academy's attention. Just look at Hillary Swank in "Boy's Don't Cry" or last year's lead, Nicole Kidman in "The Hours."

Even though Diane Keaton picked up the Golden Globe for musical and/or comedy and has been nominated in each of the last four decades, she will have a hard time topping Charlize. Her only hope is that there is an Academy backlash against promoting the violent behavior of a serial killer as depicted in "Monster." This would play in her favor as it would the other nominees. But Keaton is an Academy favorite and no stranger to this award, picking up the Best Actress Oscar in 1977 for her portrayal of Annie Hall. Also in her favor is history - Helen Hunt, in a similar type of role, found Oscar gold in 1997, starring opposite none other than Jack Nicholson, in "As Good As It Gets" and overcoming tough competition from Kate Winslet ("Titanic") and Judi Dench ("Mrs. Brown").

The remainder of the category is strong, but not strong enough. Naomi Watts gives a harrowing, respectable performance in "21 Grams" and Samantha Morton is absolutely charming in "In America," my favorite film this year. But neither is as earth shattering or memorable as Charlize's turn from classic beauty to horrific street dweller in "Monster."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alec Baldwin, "The Cooler"; Benicio Del Toro, "21 Grams"; Djimon Hounsou, "In America"; Tim Robbins, "Mystic River"; Ken Watanabe, "The Last Samurai."

MARK'S PICK: KEN WATANABE

Not to take anything away from the nominees, but this category was shaping up to be one of the toughest categories of the year. The only exception is that they forgot the best performance of the year, snubbing Peter Sarsgaard in the seldom seen "Shattered Glass," and dismissing Albert Finney's portrayal of Edward Bloom in the fun loving, "Big Fish." In my opinion, the omission of Sarsgaard and Finney has more or less transformed the supporting category into a three way race between Baldwin, Robbins, and Watanabe.

For his supporting role as the dysfunctional Dave Boyle in Clint Eastwood's "Mystic River," Tim Robbins took home the Golden Globe and instantly emerged as the favorite. But "Mystic" is not Robbins best work (see "Shawshank Redemption" or "Bull Durham") nor is it the best in this category. Overlooked is Ken Watanabe's meaty role in "The Last Samurai" as Katsumoto, a warrior upholding traditional values in a modern society. Watanabe's portrayal is brilliant - heroic, honorable, and sensible. And had he not been cast opposite Tom Cruise, he would have been given a Best Actor nomination. Watanabe is perfection, epitomizing the essence of the samurai. And an Oscar win would be momentous. After all, his selection marks only the second time in the Academy's 76 year history that a Japanese actor has even been nominated. The other, of course, was Sessue Hayakawa for his role as Saito in the 1957 classic, "The Bridge on the River Kwai". Hayakawa lost that year to Red Buttons in "Sayonara."

But let's not forget Alec Baldwin in Wayne Kramer's "The Cooler." Cast alongside William H. Macy as Shelly Kaplow, the owner of the Las Vegas casino The Shangri-La, Baldwin exhibits a vindictive, monsterous evil. But what makes his performance memorable is that he brings another side to Shelly, one that transforms the character into one with layers, full of varying emotions. He may be evil by nature, but he also shows a sentimental and caring side. Surprisingly, this represents Baldwin's first nomination. And while it's an honor to finally get in the door, don't be surprised if this dark horse walks away with the prize.

Finally, there's Benecio del Toro and Djimon Hounsou. del Toro has a grittiness and texture that go beyond his years. He looks weathered, beaten, and strained in Inarritu's "21 Grams" and is remarkable as a converted Christian struggling with his faith. I am a big fan of del Toro's; however, because of his achievement in this category for 2000's "Traffic," he may easily get passed over. And rounding out the category and surprising many is Hounsou. As a democratic body, the Academy has a way of self correcting previous mistakes. Just ask Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe, who won Best Actor awards for the wrong movies. In 1997, the Academy overlooked Djimon Hounsou in "Amistad," only to correct itself now with a nod for his bittersweet portrayal of the AIDS stricken Mateo in Jim Sheridan's "In America." It's a solid performance, but I see "In America" as more or less a great ensemble performance rather than a film with outstanding individual ones. And his role is not as dynamic as the competition.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Shohreh Aghdashloo, "House of Sand and Fog"; Patricia Clarkson, "Pieces of April"; Marcia Gay Harden, "Mystic River"; Holly Hunter, "Thirteen"; Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain."

MARK'S PICK: RENEE ZELLWEGER

Nominated for her role as the spunky, self starter in Anthony Minghella's "Cold Mountain," Renee Zellweger lightened the mood while supporting Nicole Kidman's Ada on the farm and helping her become more independent. Zellweger is charming to be sure, becoming an Academy favorite of late, earning her third nomination for "Cold Mountain," her others of course being for last year's "Chicago" and 2001's "Briget Jones' Diary." Zellweger has taken home the Golden Globe for each of these performances only to be slighted at the Academy Awards. But you know what they say about the charm of the third time. Although I don't believe it is the finest performance of the year, I do believe her efforts will pay off.

Regretfully, that means the work of Patricia Clarkson will get ignored...again. Clarkson, in my opinion, does what Sean Penn did for "Mystic River" and "21 Grams." She gives two outstanding performances, one as a hardened mother coping with cancer and her dysfunctional family in "Pieces of April" and the other, as a heart broken artist who finds unique friendships in "The Station Agent." Clarkson is a phenonmenal actress and one who you would recognize on screen. Most recently, she supported Julianne Moore in "Far From Heaven" and currently is supporting Kurt Russell in "Miracle." She always brings something new and exciting to her roles.

The dark horse in this race is Shohreh Aghdashloo, a name unfamiliar to most. Aghdashloo makes her American film debut in "House of Sand and Fog" opposite Ben Kingsley and she leaves quite an impression. As the wife of a former Iranian official and an immigrant living in the U.S., Aghdashloo's Nadi Behrani shows a depth and compassion externally without speaking much English. And when she does speak, she exudes a power and truth that humbles all in the room.

The last two candidates in this category have very remote chances. I was impressed by Holly Hunter's portrayal of a mother oblivious to the radical transformations of her teenage daughter in the shocking film, "Thirteen." But it won't be enough to grab the Oscar, particularly when she already has one, a Best Actress award for "The Piano." Ditto for Marcia Gay Harden, who is least likely to walk away with the award. She captured the supporting award for her dramatic portrayal of Lee Krasner opposite Ed Harris in 2000's "Pollack." And looking at her character in "Mystic River," who falls into indecision over her husband's (Tim Robbins) guilt, I never felt that her character had more than one compelling moment in the film to warrant contention.

2004 Academy Awards Preview (CONTINUED)

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